Ultra Trail’s Untapped Truth: Why East Africans Could Redefine the Sport
The thought first struck me last weekend. Within a 24-hour window, I was lucky enough to see two worlds of running collide in my own living room. On Saturday night, I watched Tom Evans and Ruth Croft dominate UTMB, showcasing strength, resilience, and tactical brilliance on the trails. Then, the very next morning, I tuned into the Sydney Marathon to witness the greatest of all time, Eliud Kipchoge, and the phenomenal Sifan Hassan race over the roads. The contrast was striking and it got me thinking about just how connected these two supposedly separate sports really are.
Ultra trail running has carved out its own identity in recent years. The long distances, steep climbs, technical terrain, and dramatic landscapes make it feel distinct from road running. It’s celebrated as an entirely different sport. An arena for toughness, grit, and adventure rather than raw speed.
However at its core, ultra trail running is still just running and the foundation of running performance hasn’t changed. Speed, endurance, and efficiency are what matter.
What If the Marathon Stars Showed Up?
Right now, the world’s fastest marathoners, largely East African athletes who routinely break records and redefine human limits, don’t typically appear on the start line of 100K or 100-mile trail races. Imagine if they did.
The physiological advantages they bring to the marathon, being the unmatched aerobic capacity, efficient biomechanics, and blistering speed, don’t suddenly disappear on a trail. In fact, those qualities would almost certainly transfer to ultra distances with devastating effect.
Yes, terrain management, fueling, and mental resilience matter. But at the sharp end of the field, the fundamental truth is simple. Faster runners are usually faster over any distance. Which suggests that, if marathon greats entered the ultra world, they would dominate.
When dominance happens at the very top, it cascades down through every level of the sport. Just as the 2-hour marathon barrier reset expectations for road runners worldwide, the arrival of elite marathon talent in ultras would force a global recalibration of what’s possible on the trail.
The Commercial Question
So why hasn’t it happened yet? In my opinion the answer is less about physiology and more about economics.
Road running (marathons, half marathons, and big-city 10Ks) comes with lucrative prize money, appearance fees, and major sponsorship opportunities. A top marathoner can build a career, support their family, and secure long-term financial stability by racing just a couple of times a year.
By contrast, ultra trail racing is still a niche market. Prize purses are very modest, athlete sponsorships far smaller, and the commercial structures don’t yet rival the established road circuit. For a young East African athlete deciding between chasing the World Marathon Majors or flying halfway around the world to run through the Alps for a fraction of the prize pool, the choice is obvious.
It does raise a curious question. With so much investment and sponsorship money now flowing into ultra trail, why haven’t the commercial models shifted to mirror road racing? Despite the sport’s growth, prize purses remain modest and opportunities limited. Perhaps part of the answer lies in how the sport has chosen to present itself. Big events organisers like UTMB have long cultivated an identity rooted in community, adventure, and accessibility. Introducing the likelihood of East African dominance could fundamentally reshape that narrative, and it’s possible that those steering the sport prefer to preserve the status quo.
The Next Evolution of Ultra Trail
This is where the future of the sport may hinge. If ultra trail running develops commercial systems on par with road racing like bigger prize money, wider broadcast coverage, and professionalised support structures, the competitive landscape will change overnight.
If you put equal money on the table, the world’s best runners will follow it. History suggests that East Africans, who already dominate the marathon and have unmatched depth of talent, would extend that dominance to the mountains and trails.
The next evolution of ultra trail racing may not be about the courses, the gear, or the distances.
It might be about who is on the start line.